Whether being used for fantasy baseball projections or simply to further one’s knowledge of analytics when following their favorite team, sites like FanGraphs offer valuable tools for baseball fans to learn more about the science behind baseball and dig deep into some numbers that can expand our understanding of the game. In particular, FanGraphs cobbles together projections from multiple sources, such as ZiPS, THE BAT, and perhaps most notably, Steamer, which MLB.com says “is widely regarded as one of the most accurate predictors in the industry.”

Glimpsing Steamer’s projections for the 2025 Philadelphia Phillies, there are a few notable players who look to be trending up in general or rebounding from a sub-standard 2024, but there are also several who stand out as having a less optimistic outlook.

3 Phillies predicted to regress this season in Steamer’s 2025 projections

We can all get wrapped up in raw numbers — home runs and RBI and strikeouts and the like. But so many factors go into determining how a player gets to those final numbers in a given season, which is what really makes these projection systems tick. With that, here are three Phillies that Steamer is not overly sold on for 2025.

Alec Bohm

Nobody on the Phillies has seen a more rapid fall from grace than Alec Bohm in less than a calendar year. Bohm, a worthy All-Star selection in 2024, was a legitimate National League MVP candidate as he sported a batting average over .300 into the second half of the season and jockeyed for the league lead in RBI.