GREEN BAY, Wis. – Every November, the president holds a ceremonial pardoning to save some turkeys. On Thursday, the NFL will be hoping the Green Bay Packers can save Thanksgiving.
The three-game Thanksgiving schedule leads off with the Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions and continues with the New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys.
The Bears have lost five in a row and the Lions have won nine in a row. It looks like a colossal mismatch.
Giants-Cowboys might be more competitive, but perhaps not in a good way. The Giants are 2-9 and have lost five in a row. The Cowboys are 4-7 and snapped a five-game losing streak last week. Both coaches are on the hot seat and will be starting backup quarterbacks.
The primetime game between the Packers and Miami Dolphins could be highly entertaining. Green Bay is 8-3 while Miami is 5-6 but has won three in a row.
The Packers are eighth in the league with 26.2 points per game. In the five games since Tua Tagovailoa returned from a concussion, the Dolphins are fifth with 29.0 points per game.
“It’s awesome anytime you’re in primetime, especially playing on a day like Thanksgiving,” Packers quarterback Jordan Love said. “I grew up eating Thanksgiving food and watching football. You know, a lot of that’s kind of their tradition. It’s definitely special and we love these primetime games, for sure.”
Here’s a look at all three games, with an extended look at Packers-Dolphins.
Chicago Bears (4-7) at Detroit Lions (10-1)
Time: 11:30 a.m.
TV: CBS.
The line: Lions by 9.5.
Packers historical angle: Lions quarterback Jared Goff has thrown six touchdowns and no interceptions in his first three Thanksgiving games. He could join Pro Football Hall of Famer Brett Favre as the only players with multiple touchdown passes in each of his first four games on Turkey Day.
The Thanksgiving record for most interceptions was set by Packers star Bobby Dillon with four against the Lions on Nov. 26, 1953. The Packers lost, anyway, 34-15. Dillon also has the most career Thanksgiving interceptions with six.
Advice: Eat. A lot.
Cheer for: Dream big and hope the turkey is juicy and the Bears pull off the upset, which would suddenly revive the Packers’ hopes of winning the NFC North and capturing the No. 1 seed.
Prediction: The Lions are going to beat the stuffing out of the Bears.
New York Giants (2-9) at Dallas Cowboys (4-7)
Time: 3:30 p.m.
TV: Fox.
The line: Cowboys by 3.5.
Packers historical angle: The NFL record for most touchdown receptions in a Thanksgiving game was set by Sterling Sharpe at Dallas on Nov. 24, 1994. The Packers lost, anyway, 42-31.
Advice: Let the tryptophan kick in and take a long nap so you’re rested for later.
Cheer for: For entertainment purposes, a close game would be nice, though that might be too much to ask for with Drew Lock battling Cooper Rush.
Prediction: You know the old adage: Never bet against Mike McCarthy on Thanksgiving.
Miami Dolphins (5-6) at Green Bay Packers (8-3)
Time: 7:20 p.m.
TV: NBC, with Mike Tirico (play-by-play), Jason Garrett (analyst) and Melissa Stark (sideline).
Radio: The Packers Radio Network, with Wayne Larrivee and Larry McCarren. Westwood One will have the national call with Ryan Radtke (play-by-play) and Derek Rackley (analyst).
History: The Packers don’t trail in many series but they do trail against Miami, 10-6. Green Bay is 3-3 at Lambeau.
Coaches: Packers coach Matt LaFleur is 64-30 in six seasons. Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel is 25-20 in his third season. LaFleur is 1-0, with a win in Miami on Christmas 2022.
Weather: About 27 degrees with a west-northwest wind of 10 mph, making for a wind chill of 16, according to WBAY.
Power rankings: The Packers are seventh in the Packers On SI Consensus NFL Power Rankings.
The line: Packers by 3.5.
The NFC North bet: At DraftKings, NFC North quarterbacks Jared Goff, Caleb Williams and Jordan Love are +210 to throw for a combined 800 yards.
Packers historical angle: Jordan Love can become the sixth quarterback with at least three touchdown passes in consecutive Thanksgiving appearances and the first since Tom Brady (2010 and 2012).
Advice: Eat early because it’s going to be a late night.
Cheer for: Well, this is Packers On SI …
Packers-Dolphins Preview
With a kickoff temperature of 27, will the Dolphins lose to Mother Nature and the Packers?
In games with a kickoff temperature of 40 or colder, they’ve lost 11 in a row dating to an overtime victory at Buffalo on Christmas Eve 2016, according to Stathead.
During the Mike McDaniel era the Dolphins are 0-5 in cold-weather games, including a 26-7 loss at Kansas City in last year’s playoffs, when it was a brutal minus-4 at kickoff.
Are the Dolphins going to be ready for a relatively normal November night in Green Bay?
“Nope,” left tackle Rasheed Walker said.
It’ll be about 50 degrees warmer in Miami at kickoff.
“I would say the biggest thing is mindset,” Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa said. “We’re obviously nowhere near the temperatures that all these other cold teams play at being in Miami where it’s 80. Sometimes it gets down to 50, but it just gets nowhere near the teams that make it in long stretches in the run that they try to do. To me it’s just a mindset. That’s really all it is.”
The cold is not going to be a factor. The Dolphins are sick of hearing about it.
Really, what’s going to matter is whether the Packers can pressure Tagovailoa and not give him time to connect with the high-octane duo of Tyreek Hill and Jayden Waddle.
“They’re definitely the fastest group that we’ve seen so far on tape,” Packers defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley said. “We’ve got to do it in a variety of different ways – different coverages, different ways to try to slow them down.
“It’s something that not a lot of people have been able to do. Ultimately, you’ve got to try to keep the ball in front of you. Hopefully, some of the things that we’re going to do, some of the adjustments we’re going to make will allow for that to happen.”
The other key will be Jordan Love taking care of the football. The Packers have won six in a row this season when they’ve won the turnover battle. That includes last week, when Love for the first time this season didn’t throw an interception.
Miami is plus-5 during its winning streak.
“It was huge,” he said. “Definitely was something that we’ve talked about all year and been a focus for us. We talk about it going into every game, winning the ball, and obviously it starts with us, being great with ball security, and then defense being able to generate turnovers. Definitely something we’ll have to continue.”
Prediction: The Dolphins are playing really well. Since his return from a concussion, Tagovailoa is second in passer rating, and there would seem to be some potential mismatches to exploit with Hill and Waddle against a Packers secondary lining up without Jaire Alexander.
The weather, which we just hit on, has been a storyline this week but it’s not going to be abnormally cold. Besides is “Packers weather” more foe than friend?
I always feel like the team that needs to win tends to win in games between relative equals. Miami needs a win to stay in the AFC playoff race. Green Bay is in pretty good shape, according to the computers.
Dolphins 30, Packers 24